Morgan Stanley provides a research article regarding the future of ecommerce.
“Global e-commerce stocks surged during the early days of Covid-19 but have since slumped. Despite overall slowing economic activity, key trends suggest e-commerce still has room to grow. What it means for economies, industries and investors.
The COVID-19 global e-commerce surge was initially born out of necessity. Online shopping provided a practical alternative as retail locations closed and people stayed in to avoid the virus. In fact, global e-commerce rose from 15% of total retail sales in 2019 to 21% in 2021. It now sits at an estimated 22% of sales.
But as consumers began shopping in person again, investors started to ask: Was the Covid-bump a one-and-done deal, or could e-commerce growth continue?
Our view: Over the long term, the e-commerce market has plenty of room to grow and could increase from $3.3 trillion today to $5.4 trillion in 2026.
“We believe that the Covid-driven bump will not flatten future e-commerce growth,” says Brian Nowak, an equity analyst covering the U.S. internet industry. He sees e-commerce reaching 27% of retail sales by 2026. “Across the world, we have yet to see a ceiling for e-commerce penetration.”
Many factors are driving growth, including logistics, mobile device ownership and marketplace expansion. For investors, this means the e-commerce boom will likely continue, offering opportunities for gains across multiple businesses, regions and verticals—and at a time when recent stock valuations don’t necessarily reflect that growth.”
Read more here.